A fascinating mix of articles today pit the role of government and the private sector against each other in taking on risk and competing for funds and profits.
Deep thinkers on the Hill and elsewhere are calling for government to step in and purchase distressed assets. At the same time, savvy investors are diving in to purchase distressed assets at fire-sale prices. (Mortgage Law Blog also invites readers to consider its earlier posting regarding a conference on this very type of issue).
For example, a Bloomberg article today reports, in part:
Forget lower interest rates. For the Federal Reserve to keep the financial markets from imploding it needs to buy troubled mortgage bonds from banks and securities firms, say the world’s biggest Treasury investors.
Even after cutting rates by 3 percentage points since September, expanding the range of securities it accepts as collateral for loans and giving dealers access to its discount window, the Fed has been unable to promote confidence. The difference between what the government and banks pay for three- month loans doubled in the past month to 1.95 percentage points.
The only tool left may be for the Fed to help facilitate a Resolution Trust Corp.-type agency that would buy bonds backed by home loans, said Bill Gross, manager of the world’s biggest bond fund at Pacific Investment Management Co. While purchasing some of the $6 trillion mortgage securities outstanding would take problem debt off the balance sheets of banks and alleviate the cause of the credit crunch, it would put taxpayers at risk.
“An RTC-type structure is interesting, and it may not be that much of a burden on taxpayers in the long run,” said Barr Segal, a managing director at Los Angeles-based TCW Group Inc. who helps oversee $80 billion in fixed-income assets. The government should purchase the mortgages and reissue “debt that’s backed by the U.S. government and there you go, you’ve unclogged the drain,” he said.
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A March 13 proposal by Senator Christopher Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank that the Federal Housing Administration insure refinanced mortgages after lenders reduce the loan principal to make payments more affordable to homeowners “is the next step,” Senator Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, said in a Bloomberg Television interview on March 19. It’s a “broader step, but not as broad as RTC,” he said.
Click here for the full Bloomberg article.
Contrast this position with an article in the Wall Street Journal (subscription required) regarding a new company being established to purchase distressed mortgages:
For 27 years, former Countrywide Financial Corp. President Stanford Kurland made a fortune helping to build a mortgage-lending empire.
Now, as parts of the mortgage market collapse, Mr. Kurland and some former colleagues have a new plan — make another fortune on the way down.
[Today], the group will announce the launch of Private National Mortgage Acceptance Company LLC, or PennyMac, an investment firm formed as a joint venture between asset manager BlackRock Inc., under Chief Executive Laurence Fink, and Boston investment firm Highfields Capital Management.
PennyMac seeks to raise more than $2 billion to buy distressed mortgages on the cheap, work with borrowers to restructure them, and then resell them as performing mortgages at a profit.
A number of bottom-fishers are already wading into the mortgage market, but PennyMac is taking a different approach from most. Rather than buying slices of mortgage-backed securities, which are claims to pools of mortgages, PennyMac plans to buy whole mortgage loans — the old-fashioned mortgages that banks routinely owned before the mortgage-securitization business came along.
PennyMac executives believe that troubles with whole loans are a big shoe to drop for the mortgage market, with a massive unwinding steadily under way. PennyMac executives figure that a lot of these mortgages will be sold at big discounts as banks and thrifts clean up their balance sheets.
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The PennyMac approach could be risky, particularly if it dives in too early and purchases loans that continue to drop in price, or if the firm can’t restructure the loans with terms that will ultimately lure buyers. This could leave the firm holding the bag on troubled loans, ultimately leaving its investors with losses.
“I would say the greatest risk is a very deep and very elongated recession” without “a rebound of residential housing over a very long cycle,” says Mr. Fink. While “we don’t believe” that will happen, we’re also not suggesting we know “the bubble is over or the bottom has been reached,” he says.
Despite a rebound in the mortgage bond market in recent days amid major steps by the Federal Reserve to restore confidence, PennyMac expects further problems as $1 trillion in bank-held jumbo, subprime and other loan holdings stand to become nonperforming. It thinks whole-loan losses have barely begun to materialize, and a new wave of problems is coming as certain loans with low initial “teaser” rates reset to higher rates, squeezing borrowers’ ability to pay.
Already, serious delinquency and foreclosure rates are reaching new highs by some measures, and are likely to get worse as home prices continue to fall, the economy slows, and unemployment rises.
Other big players are getting in the business of acquiring distressed mortgages and restructuring them. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., for instance, recently bought Litton Loan Servicing to help identify distressed mortgage-loan portfolios. Back in the 1980s, Litton became successful servicing loans in Texas that were struggling with residential real-estate woes like today.
PennyMac considered buying one of the loan servicers, but decided most had their hands full working with existing borrowers and growing liabilities to mortgage investors. PennyMac will be buying mortgages in various degrees of distress. The prices of certain second-lien debt, which stands behind others to collect proceeds should a borrower default, have tumbled below a penny on the dollar. Other better-quality mortgages coveted by PennyMac trade at 80 cents to the dollar. While PennyMac is hoping to resell some mortgages in a few months, executives there say they can hold mortgages for years, if necessary, as it identifies buyers.
Click here for the complete WSJ article.
If the government intends to be a good steward of public funds, it seems fair and important to ask such questions as: (i) why government should take on substantial risks if the private sector is willing to do so, (ii) will the government do a better job of taking on this risk, (iii) why the government should take the chances of being left “holding the bag on troubled loans” as the PennyMac executives readily admit is a clear possibility, and (iv) whether the public is better suited to “hold mortgages for years, if necessary, as it identifies buyers.”
These and related questions demand serious attention before the government runs headfirst and blind into a minefield.
Tags: Bailouts, Economic Stimulus, Legislation, Mortgage Banking - General by the Editor
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